The Centre Circle

For Arsene Wenger’s young and injury ravaged team, tonight will be surely it’s toughest test. Tonight Arsenal enter into the lion’s den in front of 100,000 Catalan fans who except nothing less than a ritual execution, the fate the often befalls teams that enter the cauldron that is the Nou Camp. Arsenal are bereft of some of their brightest talent, Fabregas, Arshavin, Song, Gallas, Van Persie and yet despite all the odds, I believe that the Gunners have a chance, albeit a small one, of pulling an amazing result out of the hat.

The football that Barcelona served up last week at the Emirates was spellbinding stuff, however, at the end of the night, they were guilty of the same type of complacency (or even naivety) that Arsenal teams of times past have been accused of. At 2-2 the tie is still finely balanced with the Blaugranes just the ascendancy due to their brace of away goals.

So why do I give Arsenal a chance? Over the years, Arsene Wenger’s team has played to a specific system and no matter which players are selected, they always seem to slot in to keep the machine ticking along. It is no coincidence that despite Arsenal losing a number of important players throughout the season, they have continued to score goals and win games with a relative amount of ease. I think that Samir Nasri will fill into Fabregas’ role with ease, with either Walcott, Eboue or Rosicky (if he is fit) fitting into the normal 4-3-3 shape.

Barcelona have their own problems especially in  central defence. Abidal will almost certainly return for Maxwell who had a torrid time against Theo Walcott. I suspect Gabriel Milito will come into central defence possibly alongside Marquez for the suspended pairing of Puyol and Pique. I expect Bojan Krkic to replace Ibrahimovic up front.

The second reason I give Arsenal a chance is that this time Arsenal will not be overawed by the task facing them. They know very well after the first leg that if you stand off Barcelona, they will kill you. Once they realised this last week, Barcelona were on the back foot for the last half an hour of the game. The Gunners have to score and with Barcelona’s weakness clearly in defence I think Wenger will go all out to do to Barcelona what Barcelona did to Arsenal.

Thirdly, pace and fitness. Once Arsenal brought on Walcott and upped the tempo, Barcelona looked very uneasy. As well as that, Arsenal have scored a ton of goals late on in games, and I thought that Barcelona began to fall off the pace the longer the game went on. Guardiola will know that the threat facing them can last the full 90 minutes, is young, and is hungry to cause an upset. I am convinced that Barcelona will not be able to top their performance last week; indeed I think they will find it much harder at home in front of their very demanding fans, especially if the game stays deadlocked going into the second half. I don’t underestimate the threat carried by Xavi & Messi, but I think the loss of Ibrahimovic who, by occupying defenders creates a lot of the space that Messi exploits, will be big miss for the home team.

I could be completely wrong, but I base my ideas on recent history. In away games against the European super powers of continental club football, Arsenal have had a superb record. Juventus, AC Milan, Inter Milan, Real Madrid and Roma have all been humbled in their own stadia by Arsene Wenger and his team. I think Arsenal will score tonight, and if they get the first goal, it could be a very interesting night.